So many things are wrong with Manchester United that it’s tough to see a way out.
There are a lot of problems for INEOS’s new management team. They have to deal with a team full of underperforming, overpaid stars, strict spending limits because of FFP (or PSR/FSR as it is now called), and a manager who seems to be losing control of both his players and reality.
But the truth is that if work can be done quickly and decisively—and having Dan Ashworth as director of football could be very helpful in this—the United team that starts the new season in August could be completely different for less than the £100 million Four Four Two suggested as a transfer budget.
The huge size of our planned overhaul and the large number of players coming in and going out would make it hard.
One problem with the made-up plan we’re about to show is that it will be hard to find clubs willing to take Raphael Varane and Casemiro off of United, even if they have to pay nothing. For some reason, no other club in Europe is likely to match Varane’s and Casemiro’s pay of more than £300,000 per week for the next year and two years, respectively.
Because this is an exercise, we were naive and thought that both could be sold to teams in the US or Saudi Arabia for just £5 million each.
This is a possible United team for the start of the 2024–25 season that would not only be under budget but also have a pay bill that is £55 million less per year from now on.
We got rid of Erik ten Hag and hired Julian Nagelsmann instead. There are other candidates, though. This means that players like Jadon Sancho and Amad Diallo, who were expected to be sold this summer, could be given a second chance.
The possible team has two good players in each position, and other young stars with experience on the first team, like Willy Kambwala, Tyrell Malacia, Alvaro Fernandez-Carreras, and Omari Forson, would be added to the mix.
The sale of Marcus Rashford is a key part of this plan, but not all fans will agree with it. Even though we’d like to keep a local player and school graduate, Rashford is by far our most valuable asset and one of United’s highest earners. Selling him would make it easier for other players to come in.
Anthony Martial’s contract is up, so he will be leaving. This will free up £13 million in pay. We also think Mason Greenwood will be moved on and have estimated that he will cost £35 million to move.
Since Ten Hag is leaving, it’s likely that Antony, who was his star player, will also be sold. We think he could fetch just £25 million on the market. Other stars like Aaron Wan-Bissaka, Scott McTominay, and Harry Maguire are likely to get about the same amount on the market.
Since the rest were let go for free, because their contracts were up, or for small amounts, the club made a total of £221 million in trade fees and saved £133 million a year on wages. The stated £100 million transfer fund was increased by these two amounts, giving the club a total of £454 million to spend on signing new stars and paying their wages.
This is a huge amount that INEOS can use.
That’s all they are: suggestions. They’re based on players United has been linked with, their stated asking prices or release clauses, and other factors. Our goal was to have two good choices for every spot.
Other than letting Tom Heaton go, nothing has changed in the goalkeeping staff.
A great right back like Jeremie Frimpong would be a great addition. He would give Diogo Dalot competition and cover. Also, Milos Kerkez, a great young player for Bournemouth who played well against Liverpool again yesterday, would be a great left back replacement for Luke Shaw.
There are many other right-footed and left-footed center backs on the market besides the ones we picked, Jean-Clair Todibo of Nice and Gonçalo Inacio of Sporting. Victor Lindelof will stay on as Todibo’s backup, and Lisandro Martinez and Inacio will compete for the left spot.
In the middle of the field, Khephren Thuram, Morten Hjulmand, and Youssouf Fofana would instantly improve the choices that are already there without spending a lot of money. Similar stars, like Ederson of Atalanta, could also be thought about.
We keep Bruno Fernandes in his spot in our model, and Mason Mount fills in for him and other positions as needed.
A right winger is needed now that Sancho is back to compete with Alejandro Garnacho on the left wing. Nico Williams is our choice, and Amad Diallo will be his backup. Cover is good because all four can play both wings.
One more center forward is left. Benjamin Sesko, who was a target last year, is a great choice, and with a release clause of £42 million, he’s also a good value. INEOS also wants young, hungry stars with a lot of promise, and he fits that description.
Of course, this is all fantasy football. Because INEOS wants to and is good at it, a complete remake that could change the club is possible in just one summer. This is meant to give people hope.
As you can read in more detail here, INEOS should have a big war chest for their first transfer window. However, the club will have to be careful with their money because they need to fix five different problems. The People’s Person thinks their budget will be around £250 million, which will be helped by sales and the end of expensive contracts.
The earlier books in the series gave us much-needed choices for center back, left back, right wing, and center forward. The hardest position for United to improve this summer is defensive center, which is what this last article in the series looks at.
A Soft Bump
It shouldn’t have been worries on the first day of the season or problems getting used to a new look unit with Mount replacing Christian Eriksen. Looking back, it should have been a warning sign that the system wasn’t working right. Which is becoming more and more clear each week this season.
United has given up the fourth most shots in the league so far in March. Only Sheffield United, Luton, and David Moyes’ West Ham team, which was just promoted, are higher on the list. United has given up 16 shots or more in half of their games this season. The team at the top of the table, Arsenal, has never played more than 15 in a league game.
It would be too narrow to think that this weakness is due to Casemiro’s legs giving out, Mount being a bad deal, or Fernandes wasting the ball. Each of these points of view may have some truth to it, but the fact that United’s midfield has been weak in every game this season, no matter who is playing there, says that the problem is more with the way the team is set up than with the players.
The System for Pressing
A change in United’s structure, which began last summer, is likely the most important choice Ten Hag has made in his two seasons at the club.
In spite of the fact that the Dutchman dropped Cristiano Ronaldo and then stormed out of Old Trafford in a fit of pique, switched long-time goalkeeper David De Gea for Andre Onana, and boldly took Harry Maguire’s captaincy away in favor of Bruno Fernandes, these choices are nothing compared to the system change he has been trying to make this season.
Ten Hag said that he wanted to make United the “best transition team in the world” during the club’s pre-season tour of the United States last summer. This goal made sense when you look at the profiles and skills of some of his key players, like Fernandes and Marcus Rashford.
In the past few years, United has always looked their best and most at ease when they start devastatingly fast and cruel counterattacks. With this in mind, it made sense for the Dutchman to want to keep building up his new team. And so he gave it his all.
Ten Hag pushed United to be a team that was strong in the press and tried to control moves. Ten Hag didn’t want his players to just wait for counterattacks with a low block defense, which was common under Ole Gunnar Solskjaer. Instead, he wanted them to press high and hard to make turnovers in the other team’s half.
It was easy for the club to use this transitional style with the players they signed in the summer, like Onana, Mount, and Hojlund. Fitness started to get a lot more attention in training in order to give the team the energy to carry it out. And, of course, organized pressing became the most important thing in tactical meetings.
But it was a small change to the way his center was set up that made the biggest difference.
In Ten Hag’s first season as manager, United used a normal 4-2-3-1 formation. Fernandes played as a roving number ten in front of Casemiro and Eriksen most of the time in the middle of the field. Even though it wasn’t perfect, it was a huge improvement over Solskjaer’s “McFred” pairing of Scott McTominay and Fred. It was also good enough for United to win the Carabao Cup, get back into the Champions League by finishing third in the league, and make it to the FA Cup final.
It was a great first season for Ten Hag. What made him think he needed to change things?
For your transfer team to be the best in the world, you need to make as many as possible. This is important because without it, the match will not be going in a way that helps you win. So, to bother the rival defense, you need a strong high press.
Ten Hag thought that the best way to do this was to break up the Casemiro-Eriksen center. He then put Mount and Fernandes in as two advanced midfielders and told them to push forward to help United’s press from the front. This meant that Casemiro was the only defender in the middle of the field, which is something the Brazilian would not have been able to do when he was 22, let alone when he was 32, as he turned in February.
Actually, there isn’t a single defensive player in the world that could do this job because it requires too much. Casemiro is expected to help the team move the ball forward from deep while also protecting the defense and stopping the other team’s counterattacks, all without any help from his teammates.
It’s easy to see why, in just nine months, the Brazilian has gone from looking like one of the best midfielders in the Premier League to one who is about to quit. Even though Casemiro’s play has been bad lately, he has still been a strong force on defense, as you can see below.
Sofyan Amrabat, who was signed on loan from Fiorentina, has also looked confused when he has played in Casemiro’s place. Scott McTominay has done the same thing. Kobbie Mainoo has been very good when playing defensive midfield, which shows how talented he is. However, the midfield still looks weak with the 18-year-old youngster at the base.
It’s clear that Ten Hag’s plan doesn’t work. This is why United’s midfielders have looked like different levels of [insert curse here], not because of how good they are individually.
The Dutch manager must fix this unbalance in the middle of the field if United are to get better next year, whether he stays in charge or a new manager takes over. If they don’t, the defensive center they want to sign this summer will have the same problems as the current group of players at the club.
No Clear Choice for the Role
Because of this, it’s hard to say for sure what kind of player United needs.
It looks like Casemiro needs to be sent to Saudi Arabia and changed with a younger model because of the way he looks. But, as we already talked about, this is more likely to be because of Ten Hag’s method than because of a big drop in quality.
Casemiro is still a useful asset to United if they give him more protection.
His defensive contributions are still strong, and his knowledge and attitude are top-notch. Ten Hag recently said that the 32-year-old is one of the leaders in training. Even though these aren’t the most exciting things that Twitter “tacticos” can show on a graph, they are important, especially in a United locker room where people’s mental health isn’t great.
Casemiro is 32 years old, so it makes sense that his legs are starting to give out. As the loan move for the average Amrabat did not work out, a younger player would help the Brazilian’s knees by taking some of the load.
In the same way, it’s hard to get a good picture of Mainoo, but not because I’m worried. It’s not clear what kind of midfielder the incredibly skilled academy graduate will become. He might make big plays, or he might be a creative box-to-box player. It’s likely that he can do both.
But when adding a new midfielder, it should be important to find the right player to pair with Mainoo.
An chat with Sir Jim Ratcliffe not long ago gave us an interesting look into what INEOS might want. Someone asked United’s new co-owner which player from the team’s past he would bring in and make them play now. He almost right away said, “Paul Scholes,” because Ten Hag’s team is “most missing” that kind of player right now.
So, we need a defensive midfielder who can play instead of Casemiro and help provide the unbeatable quality on the ball that Scholes offers. This player also needs to be as flexible as Mainoo. We might be asking too much of the middle, just like Ten Hag has been this season.
Or do we?
The Top Picked Target
There is only one midfielder who doesn’t play for one of United’s foes or one of Europe’s biggest clubs who meets all of United’s needs: Joao Neves, a starlet for Benfica.
Even though he is only 19, the 19-year-old has already become an important part of Roger Schmidt’s team, showing that he can play anywhere in the middle. He is just as good with the ball as he is without it, and he can change the game in either way with his tough physicality or his strong technical skills.
There are 91 stops that Neves has made and 97 blocks that he has made. Even though he is only 5’7″, the Portuguese international (he made his debut in October) is in the 87th percentile for winning aerial duels, showing that he has all the defense skills you could want.
However, Neves also ranks very highly in terms of possession and growth. He is in the 91st percentile for passing and the 98th percentile for trying to pass. This could mean that he is a player who doesn’t do much because he doesn’t think he can do it well or because he doesn’t trust himself. He is ranked 87th for progressive passes and 89th for good take-ons, which strongly contradicts the idea that he only has a few skills.
Neves is a first-class playmaker.
He is skilled enough to play with Casemiro and strong enough to fill in for him on defense. His versatility is also a perfect match for Mainoo’s. The 18-year-old English international and the 19-year-old Portuguese international would make a great middle pivot.
What’s the catch?
Well, Benfica is known for being hard to work with. Neves signed a new deal with the Portuguese club last summer that includes a €120 million (£103 million) release clause. Reports say that the club will not accept any offer less than this.
Since the other players on our summer wish list are expected to cost around £175 million, we only have about £75 million left in the transfer budget to sign a new playmaker. And that’s after selling a lot of players first.
As a result, Ratcliffe would probably need to give something extra to free up enough money to go ahead with this huge plan. And, as this article explains, the owner of INEOS seems ready to do just that.
The Other Option(s)
The deal might not be enough to keep Neves away from Benfica, though. Or, the club’s new management structure, which includes Omar Berrada and (more likely) Dan Ashworth, might decide that the £100 million would be better spent on something else, or on two midfielders instead of one.
We need an alternative to Neves, even if that doesn’t always exist when there is only one person. So, a solution must be found, one that gives more weight to one part of the Benfica star’s game.
The United center is weak, and they need fresher legs next to or instead of Casemiro. Because of this, United officials should stay in Portugal to find a replacement for Neves. But they will have to go from Lisbon to Porto to do that.
Alan Varela, an Argentine 22-year-old who plays middle for FC Porto, would be a great addition to any Premier League team because he is strong defensively and very athletic. Liverpool has been mentioned with a move for him, and sources in Portugal have called him the “next Javier Mascherano.”
This comparison will be backed up by Arsenal fans for sure. A few weeks ago, Mikel Arteta’s team had a very hard time beating Porto in the last sixteen of the Champions League. They had to go to penalties to beat the tough Liga Portugal team.
But if the £103 million price tag is too high, even for a millionaire, Varela is a good choice. He will help United in many of the same ways Neves would, but not all of them.
Finally, The Peoples Person’s Guide for how United should handle an important transfer window is over. There are five players United needs to get in order to improve five spots.
Jarrad Branthwaite plays center back.
Miguel Gutierrez plays left back.
Joao Neves plays defensive midfield.
Nico Williams is on the right wing.
Forward (Center) = Jonathan David
Manchester City, Liverpool, and Arsenal are already at the top of the table, and Tottenham Hotspur, Aston Villa, Newcastle, and even Chelsea could be even better than they were this season. Because of this, INEOS can’t afford to make any mistakes with their summer signings.
Varela played very well in both games, especially at home when Porto went ahead 1-0. He kept bothering the Arsenal middle, which led to one of Arteta’s impressive team’s least cohesive performances this season. Arsenal played much better in the second leg, but Varela never stopped in front of the Porto defense.
In particular, the 22-year-old would give United much-needed strength and speed.
When he has the ball, the Porto player isn’t very skilled or quick, but his 91st and 93rd percentile rankings for attempted passes and pass completion show that he is good at having the ball, if not very creative.
Ratcliffe said that Mainoo would have to take on a lot of the ball-controlling duties in the middle of the field to match what Scholes used to do. The 18-year-old seems like he can do that, though it might take some time.
There is also word that Varela’s deal has a £60 million release clause. This is a much more reasonable price than Neves’, and it fits with what United can afford this summer.
In conclusion
Neves tells the truth.
The 19-year-old is a top prospect whose skills are already great enough to make him an important part of a club that is fighting for the league title and the Europa League, and he is also putting in a strong case to play for Portugal at Euro 2024.
Neves is very versatile, which makes him a great fit for both Casemiro and Mainoo. He is also very physically strong, so he shouldn’t have much trouble getting used to the demands of English football.
He’s the kind of player that clubs sign to make a statement—a big-money deal for a player that every big club in Europe wants, meant to take your team from pretenders to winners. And in the early stages of the INEOS revolution at Old Trafford, Ratcliffe seems eager to make as many splashes of glory as he can.
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