The Catholic Church is getting ready for a change that will determine its direction for the foreseeable future now that Pope Francis has died on April 21. Francis was the first Latin American pope. As Bishop of Rome, he made a lot of changes by focussing on social justice, the environment, and making the Church more open to everyone.
The College of Cardinals is getting ready for a meeting at the Vatican that will decide the future of the Church. Not only will they choose the next leader of the world’s 1.37 billion Catholics, but they will also decide how the Church will teach, be open, and reach out to its members.
Will Francis’s progressive changes be carried on by the next pope, or will the cardinals turn back towards theological conservatism? When the white smoke emerges from the Sistine Chapel, it will be clear what the answer is.
How Pope Francis Affected the Election
The Church will be different for the next pope because of the changes and choices Francis made. Structures changed a lot during his time in office. For example, the Vatican’s power was spread out, and more non-European bishops were appointed than during any other predecessor’s time.
But the way he runs things has also made things unclear for the College of Cardinals. Ulrich Lehner, a professor of theology at the University of Notre Dame, said, “He chose the majority of the cardinals who have the power to vote.”
One of the most important issues at the summit will be how Francis handles cases of sexual abuse, which has caused disagreement among Church leaders. “Most importantly, can the voters trust that the person they elect is not a sexual predator who could be exposed?” We asked Lehner.
Michelle Dillon, who is in charge of the College of Liberal Arts at the University of New Hampshire, says that Francis was always trying to make the Curia much more open and professional. She also said that some cardinals are still not sure about his willingness to work with the secular world because they are afraid that the Church could lose its own character.
How the Next Pope Is Picked
The Vatican has customs that go back hundreds of years about how to choose a pope. The College of Cardinals, made of those under 80 years old, will vote in secret ballots inside the Sistine Chapel. A two-thirds majority is needed to elect a new pope. If no consensus is made, additional rounds of voting will continue until a candidate emerges with the necessary support. When there is no agreement after voting, the votes are burned, and people in St. Peter’s Square and on TV can see that the conclave is still going on because black smoke comes out of the chimney in the Sistine Chapel.
A new pope has been picked when white smoke shows up.
“However, his approach to governance, characterised by unilateral decisions made without consultation with the College of Cardinals, has made it impossible to form interpersonal relationships among them.”
Dillon said that the days before the conclave will be very important.
“There will be plenty of time and many face-to-face interpersonal opportunities during the mourning period for bishops and cardinals to informally confer with one another about their goals and desires for the conclave and its outcome,” she noted.
Who are the most likely candidates?
There are a few high-ranking cardinals who have emerged as strong candidates as rumours grow. Observers at the Vatican and bookmakers say that the following candidates have the best odds. Let’s take a better look at each one.
Luis Antonio Tagle (from the Philippines)
Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle, 67, is currently the betting favourite with odds of 3:1 and is seen as a strong candidate to carry on Pope Francis’s progressive mission. Tagle is a supporter of evangelisation and inclusion. He led the Congregation for the Evangelisation of Peoples for a long time and was a trusted member of Francis’s inner group.
I think that the fact that Francis chose more than 100 of the eligible papal electors could have a big impact on the result,” said Cristina Traina, a professor at Northwestern University. “That is, we may not get a pendulum swing away from Francis’ priorities.”
Tagle’s Asian background also makes him a strong candidate, since Catholicism is spreading quickly in Asia, especially in the Philippines.
Pietro Parolin (Italy)
At 4:1 chances, Cardinal Pietro Parolin, 70, is one of the most experienced Vatican officials. Since 2013, he has been the Vatican’s Secretary of State and has been very involved in diplomatic matters, such as important talks with China and countries in the Middle East.
If Turkson was elected, he would be the first African pope in hundreds of years, which would be a historic event. Pope Gelasius, who ruled from 492 to 496 AD, was the last African pope. Born in Rome to African parents, Gelasius was known for his extensive theological works and strong advocacy for charity and justice for the poor.
Peter Erdő (Hungary)
A strong conservative candidate, Cardinal Peter Erdő, 72, is currently at 6:1 odds. Erdū is a well-known and recognised expert on canon law. He has been a strong supporter of traditional Catholic doctrine and teachings. He has stressed religious orthodoxy since he was head of the Council of European Bishops’ Conferences.
Angelo Scola (from Italy)
At 8:1, Cardinal Angelo Scola, 82, has been a candidate for pope for a long time. He was one of the favourites in the 2013 conclave that chose Pope Francis. Scola is a theologian with deep roots who supports a more centralised and hierarchical Church. He was Archbishop of Milan.
He is a good candidate for those who want to turn away from Francis’s reforms because he is a traditionalist, but his age may be against him.
What’s Going to Happen?
A papal conclave usually starts 15 to 20 days after the death of a pope. That time allows for the funeral rites and the novemdiales, a nine-day period of mourning. It also gives cardinals from around the world time to come to Vatican City. The result won’t be clear until a pope is chosen behind closed doors in the Sistine Chapel. This is because different groups within the Church will be weighing their options between staying the same and becoming more conservative.
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